General information
Title: Market-based solutions for sustainable aviation under multiagent intelligence
Supervisors: Dr Gbemi Oluleye, Professor Laura Mainini
Reference code: BI0003
Project overview
Aviation faces an urgent need to reduce its climate impact, with sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) expected to play an important role in the transition towards net-zero aviation. However, high cost premiums, uncertain fuel supply, infrastructure constraints and fragmented policy incentives continue to limit investment and adoption.
This project will investigate how existing and alternative market-based mechanisms can accelerate the adoption and diffusion of different SAF pathways across the aviation system. You will develop a multi-agent modelling framework representing key stakeholders, including airlines, airports and fuel producers/suppliers, with the potential to incorporate passenger demand.
The model will capture how these actors make investment, production, supply and fuel-adoption decisions in response to costs, infrastructure availability, policy incentives, expectations and interactions with other stakeholders under uncertain future conditions. The research will consider major SAF pathways, including bio-based fuels and synthetic/e-fuels, and evaluate mechanisms such as carbon pricing, emissions trading, CORSIA, SAF mandates, credits and subsidies, revenue recycling, and combinations of these policies.
Through scenarios extending to 2050, the project will assess the effects of these mechanisms on SAF uptake, technology diffusion, emissions, investment, fuel availability, the distribution of costs and public policy expenditure. By examining interactions across airlines, airports, fuel suppliers and other stakeholders, the project aims to identify where current market mechanisms create effective incentives or potential lock-in, how their impacts vary across airline networks and airports, and which combinations of policies could support faster and economically viable deployment of sustainable aviation fuels.
Research objectives
The project will:
- Develop a multi-agent modelling framework representing key stakeholders, including airlines, airports and fuel producers/suppliers, with the potential to incorporate passenger demand.
- Capture how these actors make investment, production, supply and fuel-adoption decisions in response to costs, infrastructure availability, policy incentives, expectations and interactions with other stakeholders under uncertain future conditions.
- Investigate major SAF pathways, including bio-based fuels and synthetic/e-fuels.
- Evaluate market-based mechanisms including carbon pricing, emissions trading, CORSIA, SAF mandates, credits and subsidies, revenue recycling, and combinations of these policies.
- Assess the impacts of alternative policy scenarios on SAF uptake, technology diffusion, emissions, investment, fuel availability, the distribution of costs and public policy expenditure through scenarios extending to 2050.
- Identify where current market mechanisms create effective incentives or potential lock-in across the aviation system.
- Examine how impacts vary across airline networks and airports, and determine which combinations of policies could support faster and economically viable deployment of sustainable aviation fuels.
Contact
We welcome enquiries from prospective applicants interested in the project or the doctoral programme. Please use the contacts below, depending on the nature of your enquiry.
Doctoral programme related enquires
brahmal-aviation@imperial.ac.uk
Project related enquires
- Dr Gbemi Oluleye (primary supervisor)
- Professor Laura Mainini
