Climate debt haircut – macroeconomic and sovereign debt modelling expert (Consultant)

Result of Service

The consultant will submit the following deliverables in electronic form, in English:

• A final technical report comprising:
  • Debt-attribution methodological review and recommended options
  • Technical specifications for historical debt reconstruction attributable to global warming
  • Future Climate-Related Debt Modelling Framework: Methodology for estimating additional debt arising from global warming reaching +2°C, including adaptation financing.
  • Climate Debt Haircut Methodology: Integrated framework for determining sustainable debt levels and calculating the historical and forward-looking haircut components.
  • Feasibility Assessment and Implementation Roadmap: Assessment of data needs, uncertainties, validation options and next steps for empirical application in African countries.
  • documented illustrative calculations for 2 selected countries

Work Location

Remotely

Expected duration

4 months

Duties and Responsibilities

Background and rationale for support

Climate change is already affecting productive capacity and public finances through reduced economic output and tax revenues, reconstruction and adaptation costs, and higher financing risks. These effects can aggravate existing sovereign-debt vulnerabilities, particularly in climate-exposed developing economies with constrained fiscal space.

North Africa is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2024), the subregion experienced the fastest warming in Africa, at approximately 0.4°C per decade between 1991 and 2023. North Africa also recorded the highest temperature anomalies across African subregions in 2025 (WMO, 2026). Rising temperatures, increasingly severe droughts, water scarcity, extreme weather events and sea-level rise threaten the subregion's economic and social development, particularly through their impacts on agriculture, food security, labour productivity, infrastructure and water-dependent economic activities.

The economic consequences of climate change are already significant and are expected to intensify. The World Bank's Country Climate and Development Report for Morocco estimates that a 25% decline in water availability, combined with climate-related reductions in crop yields, could reduce GDP by 6.5%. The same report estimates that approximately US$78 billion in investment, in present-dollar terms, would be required to place Morocco on a climate-resilient and low-carbon development pathway by the 2050s (World Bank, 2022). In Tunisia, failure to address climate-related challenges could generate GDP losses of up to 3.4% by 2030 (World Bank, 2023), while a more recent assessment estimates that water scarcity alone could reduce GDP by 6.4% by 2050 (World Bank, 2026). In Egypt, the World Bank estimates that insufficient climate action could lead to GDP losses of between 2% and 6% by 2060 (World Bank, 2024). Although these scenario-based estimates are not directly comparable, they illustrate the potentially substantial macroeconomic consequences of climate change across North Africa. In a recent paper, UNECA (2025) estimated that a 1°C increase in global temperatures would lead to a 11% drop in GDP per capita in the subregion.

These climate pressures are emerging in a context of significant fiscal constraints and public debt vulnerabilities. In Egypt, central government debt stood at 82.5% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2024/25, while interest payments reached 10.6% of GDP, considerably restricting fiscal space (World Bank, 2026). In Tunisia, public debt was estimated at 82.2% of GDP in 2025, compared with 67.8% in 2019, while the fiscal deficit reached 5.2% of GDP (World Bank, 2026). Morocco recorded central government debt of 67.1% of GDP and a fiscal deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2025 (IMF, 2026). In Algeria, the fiscal deficit remained particularly elevated at 10.5% of GDP in 2025, while government debt increased to 52.1% of GDP, reflecting substantial financing needs and the depletion of fiscal buffers (IMF, 2026).

Climate change could further aggravate these fiscal and debt vulnerabilities through several interconnected channels. Climate-related reductions in economic output and productivity weaken government revenues, while extreme weather events and growing adaptation needs increase public expenditures for reconstruction, water security, infrastructure, health and social protection. Additional borrowing requirements may consequently increase public debt and debt-servicing costs, further reducing the resources available for investment in resilience and sustainable development. The resulting climate–debt trap risks becoming particularly severe in economies facing already constrained fiscal space, high borrowing costs or limited access to external financing. Although the nature and magnitude of these vulnerabilities differ across North African countries, climate change could progressively undermine their capacity to maintain fiscal sustainability while financing their development and adaptation needs.

Against this background, the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has developed a paper entitled “Debt in a Warming World: The Case for a Climate Debt Haircut for Africa”. The paper argues that the existing international debt architecture insufficiently accounts for the economic consequences of climate change, the historical responsibility for global warming and the financing needs associated with resilience and sustainable development. It proposes a one-off climate debt haircut based on two components: first, the share of existing public debt attributable to the historical economic and fiscal impacts of climate change; and second, an additional debt reduction, where necessary, to place countries on a sustainable debt trajectory under future climate conditions while preserving sufficient fiscal space for adaptation and essential public expenditure. The proposed approach requires a rigorous quantitative methodology capable of estimating historical climate-attributable debt and assessing future debt sustainability under alternative climate and financing scenarios. The present consultancy aims to develop and operationalize this methodology, providing an empirical basis for assessing the proposed climate debt haircut and its potential application to African countries.

ECA's concept paper, 'Debt in a Warming World: The Case for a Climate Debt Haircut for Africa', proposes an exploratory one-off debt reset combining two distinct assessments: (i) the portion of today's debt attributable to the historical economic and fiscal effects of anthropogenic global warming; and (ii) the additional debt adjustment, where necessary, to restore debt sustainability under future warming while safeguarding essential development and adaptation expenditure. Historical attribution and future debt assessment require different methods. Historical attribution involves credible counterfactuals without anthropogenic warming and the identification of fiscal responses and borrowing decisions. The forward-looking component requires integrated climate-economy scenarios and debt sustainability analysis, including a pathway reaching +2°C and alternative adaptation and financing assumptions. ECA therefore intends to commission two complementary methodological studies, one led by an expert in macroeconomics, fiscal policy and sovereign debt modelling and the other by an expert in integrated climate-economy modelling and climate impact attribution. The present phase is intended to develop, compare and specify feasible methodologies, not to deliver definitive debt estimates for all African countries.

Scope and tasks of work for the consultant

Under the overall guidance of the Director of ECA SRO-NA and the direct supervision of the Economic Affairs Officer responsible for the study, the consultant will undertake the following tasks, in coordination with the other expert:

• Develop and assess methodological options to estimate the proportion of today's public debt attributable to the historical macroeconomic and fiscal consequences of anthropogenic global warming,
• Assess the data requirements, feasibility, uncertainties and limitations of the proposed debt methodologies for African countries, and contribute to a joint implementation roadmap with the climate–economy expert.
• Develop a framework for estimating additional future public borrowing and debt arising from the economic impacts of a warming pathway reaching +2°C, including the implications of future adaptation financing.
• Develop a methodology for determining the maximum current public-debt stock compatible with debt sustainability under future climate conditions, while protecting essential development expenditure and adaptation needs.
• Assess the feasibility, uncertainties, debt and fiscal data requirements, and potential validation of these methodologies in African countries; identify next steps for their empirical implementation in coordination with the climate–economy expert.
• Propose an integrated quantitative framework for calculating a climate debt haircut from the historical debt attribution and, when necessary, an additional forward-looking sustainability adjustment, avoiding double counting.

The main expected deliverables and their timelines are:

• D1: Inception note (work plan, selection of the two countries); debt-attribution methodological review and recommended options (end of month 1)
• D2: Technical specifications for historical debt reconstruction attributable to global warming; future climate-related debt modelling framework (+2°C, including adaptation financing) (end of month 2)
• D3: Climate debt haircut methodology (sustainable debt levels, historical and forward-looking haircut components); draft illustrative calculations for the two countries (end of month 3)
• D4: Feasibility assessment and implementation roadmap; final documented calculations for the two countries; final technical report consolidating all components and reflecting ECA comments (end of month 4)

Qualifications/special skills

An advanced university degree (Master's degree at least) in economics, macroeconomics, public finance or a closely related field is required. A PhD in a relevant field is desirable

At least 7 years of professional experience in quantitative economic is required

Experience in sovereign-debt or public-finance modelling and applied econometrics is desirable

Languages

English and French are the working languages of the UN Secretariat. For this consultancy, Fluency in English is required. Knowledge of French is desirable

Additional Information

Not available.

No Fee

THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CHARGE A FEE AT ANY STAGE OF THE RECRUITMENT PROCESS (APPLICATION, INTERVIEW MEETING, PROCESSING, OR TRAINING). THE UNITED NATIONS DOES NOT CONCERN ITSELF WITH INFORMATION ON APPLICANTS’ BANK ACCOUNTS.